UFC Vegas 107: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We're back for UFC Vegas 107, a card headlined by Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber, with a mix of prospect showcases, comeback fights, and a few tightly lined matchups that should make for a gritty night at the Apex. Let’s break down each fight on the card and give you our picks.

Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean

This is an extremely low-level women’s MMA fight, and neither side inspires betting confidence. Dos Santos brings more technique and skill, while Ardelean will look to be overwhelmed with pressure and forward movement. Ardelean’s style can sometimes squeak out close decisions at this level, but ultimately, Dos Santos is the more skilled fighter. That said, it’s not a spot to trust your bankroll.

Pick: Rayanne dos Santos

MarQuel Mederos vs. Bolaji Oki

Very close fight. If this stays at range, Mederos has the movement and fluidity to edge it. But Oki carries big power and thrives in chaos, often brute-forcing his way into exchanges. He’s also shown the ability to mix in grappling, which could be the difference-maker if used. If he mixes it up, he can win. Slight lean his way.

Pick: Bolaji Oki

Jordan Leavitt vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Holobaugh is a gritty, mid-tier fighter who always stays in fights but tends to make critical errors that swing rounds. Leavitt is a grappling specialist who should be able to create scrambles and control top position. Layoff risk is real for Leavitt, but if he shows up ready, he should win rounds via control.

Pick: Jordan Leavitt

Andreas Gustafsson vs. Trevin Giles

This catchweight bout favors Gustafsson, who comes in with more prep time. Giles is a clean striker with speed and a sharp jab, but Gustafsson brings serious pressure, cardio, and power. He’ll walk Giles down, weaponize pace, and likely find a finish late.

Pick: Andreas Gustafsson

Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson

This should be a close fight. Vieira is physically strong and will try to muscle control time. Chiasson has physical advantages in height and reach and does well striking from the clinch. It may come down to whether she can break free and land more meaningful shots. Leaning toward Chiasson to edge it late.

Pick: Macy Chiasson

Allan Nascimento vs. Jafel Filho

Nascimento is cleaner on the feet, but Filho brings danger and aggression in both striking and grappling. Expect mad scrambles on the ground. Filho is slightly more dangerous in finishing positions and could catch something in transition. Leaning toward the underdog for finishing upside.

Pick: Jafel Filho

Zach Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic

Expect violence. Both guys have knockout power, both have questionable chins. Reese is the cleaner striker and should land first. If they grapple, it could get weird, but early finish seems likely. Slight edge to Reese to land the big shot first.

Pick: Zach Reese

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Billy Ray Goff

This is likely a submission or bust for Brahimaj. Goff is more durable, throws more volume, and should press Brahimaj against the cage and overwhelm him. Unless Ramiz jumps a guillotine and finds something, this is Goff’s fight.

Pick: Billy Ray Goff

Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes

Jacoby has the cleaner striking and better movement, and even at 37, likely still holds a speed edge. Lopes can change this fight by holding Jacoby on the cage, but if Jacoby stays at range and works his striking, he should win this.

Pick: Dustin Jacoby

Mateusz Gamrot vs. L’udovit Klein

Gamrot is the more proven fighter, but his game plan is often one-dimensional. Klein has solid takedown defense and can do more damage in striking exchanges. This may come down to control vs. damage, and Klein has the tools to edge it if he stays upright long enough.

Pick: L’udovit Klein

Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber (Main Event)

This boils down to whether Blanchfield can land takedowns. She likely can. Barber is strong, but less technical than Rose, who Blanchfield already handled. Expect rinse-and-repeat wrestling from Erin and plenty of top control. Probably goes to the cards.

Pick: Erin Blanchfield

Final Thoughts:

Some tight fights and some explosive ones this weekend. Be selective on your slips. For unit sizing and full premium plays, check out our premium channel. Good luck on UFC Vegas 107.