UFC Des Moines: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We're back with another full breakdown of this week's UFC Fight Night, headlined by Corey Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo. It’s not the strongest card on paper, but there are still some betting angles and stylistic matchups worth digging into. Here's a detailed look at every fight on the card, who we’re picking, and why.

Ivana Petrovic vs. Juliana Miller

Kicking off the card is a low-level women’s flyweight matchup. Juliana Miller is just 3-3 as a pro and has been dominated in her last two outings. Ivana Petrovic, while also unproven, at least has a more well-rounded skill set and a better record (7-2). Petrovic has the advantage on the feet and can dictate the grappling if needed. The biggest risk here is the unpredictable nature of these types of fights, which could end in a weird split decision, but Petrovic should be in control.

Pick: Ivana Petrovic

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Thomas Petersen

Mayes has consistently underperformed and was even submitted quickly by Walker. Petersen, while raw, has strong wrestling and a top-heavy style that could smother Mayes. If Petersen fights smart and avoids a brawl, he should find takedowns and win with control. Not a flashy pick, but a logical one based on styles.

Pick: Thomas Petersen

Gaston Bolanos vs. Quang Le

Bolanos is a clean, technical striker with legit knockout power. If he can keep the fight standing, he should comfortably outpoint or finish Le. That said, Le is a tricky striker in his own right and can mix things up well. He may look to implement a more well-rounded game, and if he can secure top position, things could get dicey. Still, based on what we've seen, Bolanos should be able to dictate the pace on the feet.

Pick: Gaston Bolanos

Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson

Rodriguez is the more technical striker, but she has a glaring hole in her game: takedown defense. Robertson is younger, hungrier, and relentless with her wrestling. If she’s able to close the distance, she’ll take this to the mat and dominate with control and submission threats. It’s tough to trust Rodriguez to keep it standing.

Pick: Gillian Robertson

Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev

Bekoev is a strong, well-rounded middleweight who made a statement in this bout. He landed a right hook and followed it up with ground-and-pound to finish Loder in the first round. Bekoev has heavy hands and solid positional awareness. Loder, while a gritty grappler, couldn’t get anything going. The power and speed advantage was clear.

Pick: Azamat Bekoev

Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate

Neither fighter is close to their prime. Santos may win this if she can stuff takedowns and land more on the feet, but Tate still has a grinding, smothering style that wins rounds. At 38, Tate is still in good shape and motivated, and if she gets the fight to the mat, she should control enough to win rounds.

Pick: Miesha Tate

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones

Stephens still has KO power, but his best days are long behind him. Jones is younger, more well-rounded, and has a strong wrestling base. If he fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and avoids the firefight, he should take this comfortably. That said, the -500 price tag is too wide. Stephens still has that knockout threat.

Pick: Mason Jones

Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey

Smotherman made a big impression with his win over Jake Hadley. He has crisp boxing and aggressive pressure. Sidey is a long, awkward striker who thrives at range, but struggles when pressured. If Smotherman can get inside and make it ugly, he’ll win. His defensive grappling is suspect, but that won’t matter here unless Sidey surprises us.

Pick: Cameron Smotherman

Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos

Marcos is undefeated, but Jackson is the more dangerous, proven fighter. Jackson has the wrestling, the power, and the finishing upside. Marcos will need to win a volume-based decision, and while that’s how he tends to get it done, Jackson’s athleticism and weapons should make the difference. Watch for a potential late finish if Marcos fades.

Pick: Montel Jackson

Daniel Rodriguez vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Both guys are in the twilight of their careers, but Rodriguez still shows more volume and forward pressure. Ponzinibbio has the edge in power, but Rodriguez’s durability and output may edge him ahead on the scorecards. Expect a razor-close decision. Could go either way.

Pick: Daniel Rodriguez (low confidence)

Co-Main: Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal

Reinier de Ridder is slick on the ground, but this isn’t the spot for him. Bo Nickal should be able to keep it standing, avoid submissions, and piece de Ridder up on the feet—just like he did to Paul Craig. He’s more technical than de Ridder and has the power edge too. He just needs to avoid the ground at all costs.

Pick: Bo Nickal

Main Event: Corey Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo is always live due to his power and top game, but Sandhagen is one of the most skilled, fluid strikers in the division. He’s rangy, precise, and knows how to manage distance. Figueiredo may try to wrestle, but Sandhagen has improved his defensive grappling. Over five rounds, Sandhagen should pull away with volume and footwork. The -500 line is wide, but justified.

Pick: Corey Sandhagen

Final Thoughts

This isn’t a great betting card, but there are a few spots to target. Low unit sizing recommended. For official bets and unit sizes, check out premium channel.