UFC 315: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We're back with another week of picks and predictions, and this time it's for UFC 315, headlined by a compelling welterweight bout between Bilal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. The undercard features several close matchups, some big names, and a few live dogs. Here's the full breakdown of every matchup and who we’re picking.

Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Bekzat Almakhan (11-2) showed serious power on the regional scene but was dominated by Umar Nurmagomedov in his UFC debut. While he did briefly drop Umar early, he landed fewer than 10 strikes across the rest of the fight.

Brad Katona, a two-time TUF winner, is well-rounded and hard to finish. He’s got reliable wrestling, a strong chin, and the cardio to push late into fights. While he doesn't bring the top-tier pressure of Umar, he should be able to mix it up well and win minutes. Being the underdog here gives him added value.

Pick: Brad Katona (slight lean)

Daniel Santos vs. Jeong Yeong Lee

Daniel Santos returns after a two-year layoff and is moving up a weight class to face a natural featherweight in Jeong Yeong Lee. Santos fights out of Chute Boxe and brings strong Muay Thai, but time away from the cage is always risky.

Lee holds a win over Blake Bilder and a split decision over Yi Zha, and was KO'd by Hyder Amil, who just beat William Gomis. Santos is slicker and sharper on the feet, but the layoff is enough to keep this one off the betting card.

Pick: Daniel Santos

Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva is on a four-fight skid and has looked completely checked out. His losses to Brendan Allen and Shara Magomedov were forgivable, but being outworked by Chris Weidman and dominated by debutant Ismael Naurdiev is deeply concerning.

Marc-André Barriault has lost three in a row himself, including a split decision to Chris Curtis, and knockouts by Joe Pyfer and Dustin Stoltzfus, but he tends to bring pressure and at least look like he wants to win.

Silva has the power, but Barriault likely wins on output and heart.

Pick: Marc-André Barriault

Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan

Navajo Stirling (6-0) is raw but clearly talented. His UFC debut went the distance largely because Tuco Tokkos was only trying to survive. Ivan Erslan is coming off a close loss to Ion Cutelaba and will pressure more here.

Stirling will need to show takedown defense and cardio. If he does, his striking and movement should carry him.

Pick: Navajo Stirling

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba

Cutelaba is coming off back-to-back wins over Ivan Erslan (split decision) and Ibo Aslan (submission). Bukauskas has wins over Marcin Prachnio and a quick KO of Rafael Cerqueira.

Bukauskas is the more composed striker and should avoid a brawl. If he keeps this technical, he should edge Cutelaba.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas

Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius has a massive 6-inch height and reach advantage, strong wrestling, and cardio. Andrade is the better striker and more experienced, but she’s undersized and struggles against bigger, grappling-heavy opponents.

If Jasudavicius can mix in takedowns and avoid the big shots, she could grind out a decision.

Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius

Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke

Malott is coming off a slow, hesitant win over Trevin Giles, which followed his late KO loss to Neil Magny. Radtke has sharp striking and surprising takedown defense.

If this stays standing, Radtke carries more danger and could catch Malott or win on volume.

Pick: Charles Radtke

Benoît Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec

Saint-Denis was supposed to face a ranked opponent, but Prepolec is stepping in on short notice. He's 18-8 and making his UFC debut.

This is a squash match. Saint-Denis will likely get him down and find a finish.

Pick: Benoît Saint-Denis (inside the distance)

Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva

Grasso is coming off a one-sided loss to Valentina Shevchenko and may be regressing post-title. Silva has better footwork, faster hands, and is trending upward.

The market, data, and eye test all suggest Silva outpoints Grasso.

Pick: Natalia Silva (by decision)

José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Zahabi is riding wins over Pedro Munhoz and others, and fights out of Tristar under Firas Zahabi. He’s technical, defensively sound, and sharp on the counter.

Aldo has shown he can still hang, outstriking guys like Mario Bautista and Jonathan Martinez, and his last “real” loss was to Merab Dvalishvili.

Aldo has the jab, kicks, and experience to edge this, but age and Zahabi’s fight IQ make it tight.

Pick: José Aldo (very slight lean)

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot (Co-Main Event)

Fiorot is younger, more explosive, and just dominated Erin Blanchfield.

This feels like a passing-of-the-torch moment. Fiorot will be first to the punch and likely wins on volume and movement.

Pick: Manon Fiorot

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Main Event)

Muhammad has wins over Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, and Sean Brady. Della Maddalena barely scraped by Basil Hafez and Kevin Holland, and nearly lost to Gilbert Burns.

This comes down to experience, cardio, and gameplan. Belal has them all. JDM is live for a KO but will likely be out-grappled and out-paced over five.

Pick: Belal Muhammad

Final Thoughts

This card has a mix of value underdogs and obvious favorites. Be selective. For official bet slips, unit sizes, and EV-based picks, check out our premium channel!