UFC Vegas 106: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We’re back with another Apex card, headlined by rising welterweight contender Michael Morales and longtime fan favorite Gilbert Burns. While it’s not the most stacked event, there are plenty of tight matchups, prospect tests, and live underdogs. Here's the full breakdown of every matchup and who we’re picking.

Luana Pinheiro vs. Tecia Pennington

Tecia Pennington is a -400 favorite here, which feels way too wide for a fighter with such a risk-averse, grinding style. She’s coming off a win over Carla Esparza, but it was competitive, and Esparza was already in decline. Pinheiro has power, is capable on the ground, and has been in there with tough opponents like Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill. If she can get this fight to the mat, she’ll control large stretches. Even if not, she’s dangerous enough on the feet to make this interesting. At +300, she’s a clear value side.

Pick: Luana Pinheiro

Hyun Sung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez

Carlos Hernandez is a technical striker, but he doesn’t carry much power and relies on out-voluming opponents. Park, on the other hand, has legitimate finishing upside — both by knockout and submission. He’s the more dangerous fighter and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Hernandez’s only real path is a gritty decision, which feels narrow.

Pick: Hyun Sung Park

Denise Gomes vs. Elise Reed

This line is wide, but Gomes should roll here. She’s compact, powerful, and constantly comes forward. Elise Reed doesn’t have the physicality, reach, or grappling to keep Gomes off her. Reed likely survives, but she’ll get walked down and outworked.

Pick: Denise Gomes

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa

Luana Santos looked lost on the feet against Casey O’Neill when she couldn’t get the takedown. Lisboa is a former Muay Thai fighter with solid takedown defense and even fought Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. If she keeps it standing, she should be the cleaner striker and win on volume and control.

Pick: Tainara Lisboa

Yadier Del Valle vs. Connor Matthews

Matthews has been KO’d in two straight fights and is likely fighting for his UFC life here. Del Valle is 8-0 and brings pressure, clinch strikes, and sharp elbows and knees. If this stays standing, it’s only a matter of time before Del Valle cracks him.

Pick: Yadier Del Valle

Thiago Moises vs. Jared Gordon

Jared Gordon always brings the pressure but tends to walk into shots. Moises is a clean striker, more accurate, and far more dangerous on the ground. He’s low volume, but should land the bigger shots and has the submission edge if it hits the mat.

Pick: Thiago Moises

Mateus Camilo vs. Gabe Green

Camilo looked great on DWCS with crisp striking and nasty leg kicks, but Gabe Green is a brawler who thrives in chaos. He’s coming down from welterweight, has better experience, and should be able to make this ugly. In a close scrap, Green’s pressure and grit could swing the rounds.

Pick: Gabe Green

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Erosa’s high-volume striking and creativity are fun to watch, but he’s been knocked out seven times and always walks a fine line. Costa has sharper technique, more finishing upside, and can win a decision or find the chin.

Pick: Melquizael Costa

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus may try to wrestle here, but Ruziboev is huge for the division, a clean striker with power, and should have the edge in almost all stand-up exchanges. As long as he doesn’t get stuck on bottom, he’s the more dangerous fighter.

Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev

Mairon Santos vs. Sodiq Yusuff

Santos lost steam after a split over Francis Marshall, but his footwork, defense, and volume are excellent. Yusuff has better experience but rarely wrestles and struggles against movement-heavy fighters.

Pick: Mairon Santos

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Craig is always live for a sub, but Bellato is better everywhere else: durability, striking, pressure, and power. Unless he dives into Craig’s guard for no reason, he should cruise here.

Pick: Rodolfo Bellato

Michael Morales vs. Gilbert Burns

Morales is younger, faster, bigger, and has the better striking. Burns is live for a submission, but he doesn’t have the wrestling to get it there consistently. Unless Morales gasses hard, he should take over and find a finish.

Pick: Michael Morales

Final Thoughts:

Expect some chaos this week. For full bet slips and unit sizing, check out our premium channel!