UFC 316: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We’re back with another action-packed UFC card, this time headlined by a high-stakes bantamweight clash between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. This card is filled with aggressive matchups, rising contenders, and stylistic clashes that should deliver plenty of chaos. Here's the full breakdown and who we're picking in each fight.

Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson

This is going to be a banger. Both guys bring serious aggression. Khaos Williams throws wild, looping shots with knockout power, while Gustafsson pressures forward and likes to get inside and rough opponents up in the clinch. That said, Gustafsson can be hittable on entries and exits, which is a recipe for disaster against a guy like Khaos. If Gustafsson starts grinding and Williams fades, things could get sketchy, but I’m picking Williams to land something big

Pick: Khaos Williams

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

Striker vs. grappler setup here. Choinski’s best path is clearly through wrestling, but on the feet, he’ll be badly outclassed. Mederos should be able to keep this fight standing, especially with the larger Apex cage in play. As long as he defends the takedown early, he should piece Choinski up over three rounds

Pick: MarQuel Mederos

Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Salkilld is a heavy favorite here, maybe too heavy. Ashmouz has power and will look to change the rhythm by mixing in grappling if the striking isn’t going his way. This is a real test for Quillan’s takedown defense. Ashmouz is tough and durable and should make this competitive. With the betting line being as wide as it is, I’ll lean dog or pass

Pick: Yanal Ashmouz

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Murzakanov is undefeated for a reason. He’s light on his feet, has great movement, and possesses real power. Ribeiro is athletic and explosive, but Murzakanov should be the better fighter everywhere outside of maybe pure BJJ. Expect a clean KO win for Azamat

Pick: Azamat Murzakanov

Joo Sang Yoo vs. Jeka Saragih

Yoo has the edge in most departments. He’s a better striker, better wrestler, and controls better overall. Jeka has huge power and is always live for a KO, but if Yoo can avoid big shots and stick to his gameplan, he should control the fight

Pick: Joo Sang Yoo

Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortez-Acosta

Waldo will have a clear edge in the striking department. He’s more accurate and technical, and people underrate his power. The big question is whether he can deal with the grappling of Spivac. Waldo has a decent get-up game but tends to give up his back, a major risk. Still, I don’t think Spivac will be able to hold him down consistently. Slight lean to Waldo to win the striking and survive the ground spots

Pick: Waldo Cortez-Acosta

Ariane Lipski vs. Cong Wang

Lipski is usually the better striker in her matchups, not here. Wang should have the edge in striking, and unless Lipski comes in with a heavy grappling gameplan (which is unlikely), she’s in trouble. WMMA variance always looms, but I’m siding with Wang

Pick: Cong Wang

Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

Joshua Van is the real deal. Elite boxing, clean footwork, and still super young. Silva is experienced and can offer a lot of looks, but Van is levels above in technique. The danger is that Van is finally fighting someone comfortable on the feet. His last few opponents wanted to grapple, now he’s in a striking match. Still backing the talent

Pick: Joshua Van

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

This is a phenomenal fight. Mix is longer, more dangerous in grappling, and insanely good at finding the back. Bautista is a high-volume striker who controls minutes well, but tends to give up bad positions in scrambles. I see Mix getting his shots in early but fading slightly late. Bautista should land more overall. Close fight, but I’m leaning decision for Mario

Pick: Mario Bautista

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Holland can’t wrestle and hasn’t evolved much. Luque might be slightly behind on the feet but has solid BJJ and wrestling to take over. If Luque gets this down, Holland likely throws up a sub attempt or checks out. At +200, Luque by sub is very live

Pick: Vicente Luque

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Gastelum is tough, durable, and well-rounded, but he’s also taken a ton of damage and hasn’t shown major evolution. Pyfer is younger, hits hard, and will probably brutalize him if this turns into a war. I expect a finish from Pyfer, maybe late second or early third

Pick: Joe Pyfer

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison

Harrison should dominate. She’s physically stronger, technically sound, and has far better grappling. Pena is gritty and durable, but over five rounds, Harrison should either find a sub or dominate positionally

Pick: Kayla Harrison

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley (Main Event)

This fight is simple. Can O’Malley do enough damage and defend enough takedowns to win? Merab’s gameplan is rinse-and-repeat wrestling, but he doesn’t do a ton of damage, which keeps rounds close. O’Malley has power and accuracy and may land the better shots. I still lean Merab to win, but the best betting angle may be to take a spread bet on O’Malley in a likely close decision

Pick: Merab Dvalishvili

Final Thoughts:

UFC 316 is packed with closely lined fights and stylistic drama. Be selective with bets, plenty of variance across the card. Want official picks, unit sizes, and betting slips? Hit up betkopicks.com and join the premium squad.