UFC Vegas 109: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We’re back with another fight night, and this one is full of massive favorites that could potentially be chalky. I do see a lot of favorites winning this week but the odds are unjustified on a lot of these fights. Spread and round bets will be your friend this week.

Cody Brundage vs Eric McConico

Brundage’s last fight ended in a draw after a bizarre headbutt sequence in the third round. Now he faces McConico, who’s coming off a debut loss to Ruziboev. McConico is tough, but Brundage has the experience edge and should be able to mix in some wrestling to control this fight. He’s been in there with higher-level guys and has more paths to victory. As long as his chin holds up, I think he gets it done.

Pick: Cody Brundage

Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko

Gabriella Fernandes is riding some momentum heading into this matchup, most notably with a win over Cong Wang who’s legit. She’ll be the far better striker here. Julija’s main path to victory is through all-out grappling, and while her jiu-jitsu is dangerous, I trust Fernandes to survive on the mat and take over on the feet. The line is wide, but Gabriella should win this one on the cards.

Pick: Gabriella Fernandes

Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina

I don’t trust Uros Medic as a -500 favorite here. He has a serious disadvantage in the wrestling, and Urbina will be live to mix things up. On the feet, Medic has the edge and could absolutely find the KO, Urbina has been stopped before, but I think Urbina can be unorthodox enough to cause problems. The value is on the underdog here, and I’ll take a swing.

Pick: Gilbert Urbina

Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira

Cachoeira eats a ton of shots and tends to chase highlight-reel moments. Against someone like Edwards, who’s a more disciplined kickboxer with good range control, that’s a problem. I expect Edwards to stay active with the kicks, keep distance, and rack up volume. Wouldn’t be surprised if she mixes in some grappling too.

Pick: Joselyne Edwards

Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama

This should be a walk for Elijah Smith. He’s better everywhere and should be faster and more powerful on the feet. Kazama’s chin is questionable, his takedown defense is suspect, and a fluke submission is really his only win condition. Smith should dominate, and the finish prop is definitely in play.

Pick: Elijah Smith

Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira

No real betting angle outside the under on rounds. Both guys can crack, and someone’s likely going to sleep. Walker has more tools and can take this fight to the ground if needed. Cerqueira hasn’t shown the durability to survive those wars recently. He might fight with extra fire since his UFC job could be on the line, but I’m still leaning Walker.

Pick: Julius Walker

Eryk Anders vs Christian Leroy Duncan

CLD should be the better striker here and has been shoring up his takedown defense. Anders will try to pressure, bully, and make it gritty, but I don’t see that gameplan working against Duncan’s movement and power. CLD should piece him up on the feet and make this look clean.

Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan

Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto

Johns is dangerous, strong wrestling, heavy hands, and solid fight IQ. Think a discount Michael Chandler. But Matsumoto is slick on the feet with a sharp Muay Thai game and can grapple as well. He’s also the bigger submission threat if things hit the mat. Johns will land the harder shots, but Jean should be busier. This is razor-close, but I’m leaning the young prospect.

Pick: Jean Matsumoto

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez

Fili’s the more technical guy on paper, but CRod thrives in ugly fights. He’s proven he can out-dog more skilled opponents, and I think he does it again here. As this fight goes on, CRod’s pressure will start to drown Fili, and I see him taking over late. Pretty confident in this one, especially at the price.

Pick: Christian Rodriguez

Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill

Hill is still one of the highest-volume fighters in the UFC. Lucindo is explosive and dangerous but lacks the polish and fight IQ that Hill brings to the table. This will likely be close, but Hill’s ability to steal rounds with output and cage control should be the difference. This has split decision written all over it, I’ll trust the vet.

Pick: Angela Hill

Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne

Erceg is coming off a close title fight and now finds himself in a weird bounce-back spot. Ode Osbourne has power and speed, and if Erceg fights undisciplined, he could absolutely get caught. That said, Erceg’s clearest path is wrestling, and if he leans on that, he should win with control.

Pick: Steve Erceg

Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez

This is all about surviving the early storm. Dolidze is dangerous early and could absolutely finish Fluffy in the first round. But if Hernandez survives, his cardio and pace over five rounds will be too much. I think Fluffy takes over by the mid-point and either drowns Dolidze late or wins a dominant decision.

Pick: Anthony Hernandez

Final Thoughts:

This card has a lot of chalk, but also a couple live dogs that are playable. There are a few fighters who could pull away based on pace and pressure, and others that just need one takedown or one bomb. We drop official plays and props each week for our premium community. As always, you can join up atbetkopicks.com. Let’s cash.