UFC Shanghai Full Card Breakdown & Picks

Overview

An interesting card with high variance written all over it. Here’s the full breakdown of UFC Shanghai, every matchup, every angle, and where the value lies 👇

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Uran Satybaldiev

Low-level lightheavyweight scrap between two 0-1 UFC fighters. There’s not much tape to lean on here, but Uran’s short-notice debut against Martin Buday was more impressive than Nurgozhay’s flat showing. Uran held his own against one of the division's more physically imposing grinders. This is a “stay-away” from a betting standpoint, but the pick is Uran based on what little we’ve seen.

Pick: Uran Satybaldiev

Long Xiao vs Su Young Yu

Yu will shoot nonstop and look to smother, but I think Long Xiao can stuff enough takedowns and turn the tide in the later rounds. Xiao is a dog on the feet, aggressive, scrappy, and he’ll be the one pushing the pace. Yu’s grappling is dangerous, but he overcommits, which should give Xiao enough chances to get up or reverse position. I’m siding with the underdog here.

Pick: Long Xiao

Yi Zha vs Westin Wilson

No value on this one. Yi Zha should absolutely roll, but Wilson is live for a random submission if the fight hits the mat. Zha’s power and pressure should be too much, look for a KO win, but don’t touch this line.

Pick: Yi Zha

Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus

Pereira is still wild, but we’ve seen him lose to top-level guys lately, not scrubs. Daukaus is coming in on short notice and returning to the UFC. That’s a rough combo. Pereira will be dangerous early, and with this only being a 3-round fight, I think he finds a quick finish.

Pick: Michel Pereira

Rong Zhu vs Austin Hubbard

Hubbard is mid-tier across the board, no standout skillset. Zhu brings heat, pushes pace, and has underrated takedown defense. I think Hubbard has moments, maybe steals a round, but Zhu lands the more damaging shots and gets his hand raised on the cards.

Pick: Rong Zhu

Lone’er Kavanagh vs Charles Johnson

This is Kavanagh’s toughest test so far. Johnson has good cardio, solid striking, and experience, but Kavanagh should be faster and can mix in the wrestling. Expect a razor-close decision with Kavanagh edging it out by combining pressure, speed, and just enough grappling.

Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh

Mahashate Hayisaer vs Gauge Young

Sketchy fight. Mahashate is the better striker and will look great at range, but if Young gets inside and makes this dirty, things can get dicey fast. Still, Mahashate has the home crowd and cleaner technique. Leaning toward him in a close, potentially controversial decision.

Pick: Mahashate Hayisaer

Taiyilake Nueraji vs Kiefer Crosbie

We haven’t seen Nueraji tested yet, but the guy looks like a dangerous prospect. Crosbie isn’t UFC caliber and lacks the tools to win this unless he lands something big early. The pick is Nueraji by knockout, though don’t be shocked if we learn he’s a can too.

Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji

Su Mudaerji vs Kevin Borjas

Borjas is fast, throws volume, and should win the exchanges on the feet. Su may look to grapple, but I don’t think he has the skill set to hold Borjas down. If this stays standing, Borjas outworks him and pulls off the upset.

Pick: Kevin Borjas

Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

I admit, this one might be a biased pick. Pavlovich has the power and a wrestling wrinkle we saw last time out. But Waldo’s jab and quick feet could give Sergei issues. I think the boogeyman aura is gone and Waldo’s stick-and-move style frustrates him enough to win on the cards. Plus money on Waldo? I’m in.

Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling

Aljo just went toe-to-toe with Evloev, arguably the #1 contender, and looked sharp. Ortega has elite jiu-jitsu, but we’ve seen this before: control beats submission threats more often than not. Aljo should be able to avoid danger and rack up control time en route to a decision win.

Pick: Aljamain Sterling

Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang

This one feels inevitable. Walker’s chin is gone, and Zhang is a buzzsaw right now. If Zhang lands clean, which he will, it’s game over. Walker always has a puncher’s chance, but it’s slim. Zhang by KO.

Pick: Mingyang Zhang

Final Thoughts

This Shanghai card is a sleeper. Lots of promising Chinese prospects, a few exciting underdog spots, and some pure violence matchups. From a betting standpoint, it’s a high-variance card, tread carefully. Personally, I’ll be keeping it light but I like a few dogs to bark. Remember to check out our premium subscription to tap into our bets on a weekly basis.