UFC Abu Dhabi: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We’re heading back to Fight Island for a card loaded with debut hype, veterans in must-win spots, and a main event that could shift the middleweight title picture. Here's how we're breaking down every fight, with sharp angles, red flags, and confident leans.

Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha

Martin Buday is facing a one-dimensional but dangerous UFC debutant in Marcus Buchecha, who brings elite grappling and relentless takedown pressure. Buday’s 100% UFC takedown defense looks great on paper, but he’s never fought someone with Buchecha’s pace or jiu-jitsu chops. If Buchecha gets him down, most heavyweights simply won’t get back up. Risky fight to bet, but I lean toward the more dangerous path.

Pick: Marcus Buchecha

Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen

Yahya just hasn’t shown much to get excited about. This will likely be a striking affair and Nguyen is cleaner, sharper, and has more tools on the feet. Yahya is tough, but I think he gets touched up repeatedly and eventually finished as the damage adds up.

Pick: Steven Nguyen

Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana

Elekana may be the more technically sound fighter, but Ibo Aslan doesn’t let opponents fight pretty. He’ll charge forward, throw heat, and try to make this ugly. I don’t think Elekana can avoid the fire for long, Aslan is going to swing and likely find a finish.

Pick: Ibo Aslan

Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci

This should be a competitive and technical scrap. Ribas lands more volume, but Ricci is fantastic at controlling optics and winning close rounds. She throws in flurries, looks busier, and has underrated cage IQ. I trust her to squeak out a close decision here.

Pick: Tabatha Ricci

Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Davey Grant

Davey Grant is the exact kind of fighter you want to back as a dog. He’s aggressive, throws volume, and will fight tooth and nail to win rounds. Blackshear is talented, but too passive at times and rarely puts a stamp on moments. Unless he locks up a slick sub, I think Grant wins on activity and toughness.

Pick: Davey Grant

Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal

Salikhov still has striking craft, but he’s 41 years old and slowing down. Leal is younger, hits harder, and will walk him down with pressure. If Salikhov doesn’t find something clean early, I see him getting overwhelmed. Don’t be surprised if this ends inside two rounds.

Pick: Carlos Leal

Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov

Classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Bryce will dive for takedowns, but Said’s movement, range control, and underrated defensive grappling make him a tough puzzle. With Bryce draining himself to make 135, I’ll take the faster man with the cleaner striking.

Pick: Said Nurmagomedov

Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov

Guskov is dangerous early, he hits hard and chases finishes. But Krylov is more proven and well-rounded. If he survives Round 1, I expect him to take over with pressure, grappling, and volume. I’m banking on durability and experience.

Pick: Nikita Krylov

Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa

Chute Boxe fighters like Ochoa bring chaos and violence, but they’ve always struggled with defensive grappling. Asu is a relentless wrestler who will take you down and keep you there. He’s fought better comp and should dominate with control and pressure.

Pick: Asu Almabayev

Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Shara’s speed, kicks, and distance management should win him rounds here. Barriault has some tools but his chin has been tested, and I don’t think he can keep up with the volume. As long as Shara doesn’t get clipped, he should dance to a decision.

Pick: Shara Magomedov

Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee

McGhee is solid, but Yan is still one of the most technical strikers in the division. If McGhee struggles with leg kicks again, Yan will pick him apart. The only red flag is Yan’s slow starts in three-rounders, but I think he turns it up quicker this time.

Pick: Petr Yan

Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder

This is the toughest call on the card. Whittaker is faster, sharper, and much better on the feet. But RDR is massive at 6'4", and if he can close the distance and initiate grappling, he’s live for a sub. If it extends, Rob takes over, but early, RDR is dangerous. Leaning toward size and submission threat in the first half of the fight.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder

Final Thoughts

UFC Abu Dhabi is filled with dangerous debutants, aging vets, and razor-close matchups. It’s a volatile card, don’t force action on every fight. Focus on grappling mismatches and live underdogs who push pace. For full betting slips, unit sizes, and Discord breakdowns, hit upbetkopicks.com and join the premium squad.