UFC 317: Full Card Breakdown and Predictions

Overview

We’ve got a fun one this week at UFC 317. This card features a mix of aging vets, hot prospects, and some volatile matchups. Here’s a fight-by-fight breakdown of what to expect and who we’re picking.

Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith

Jacobe Smith is one of the top prospects in the UFC right now, and this looks like a showcase fight. Niko Price is durable but clearly past his prime. Smith is a wrestling beast and has heavy hands. The books have him as a massive favorite for a reason. Expect a quick finish.

Pick: Jacobe Smith

Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

Diniz is a dangerous kickboxer who should piece up Hines at range. The risk comes if Hines manages to drag him to the mat, but he doesn’t have elite wrestling. Diniz is definitely vulnerable on the ground, but unless Hines can force it there repeatedly, this should be a striking masterclass.

Pick: Jhonata Diniz

Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey

Dumas hasn’t shown the improvements you’d hope to see from a UFC-level fighter, and his durability is starting to crack. McVey is untested but has blown through everyone so far. This is a gamble, but I’m siding with the upside and momentum of McVey to take this one.

Pick: Jackson McVey

Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

McKinney fights are always chaos. He goes full throttle from the start and either crushes or crumbles. Borshchev has issues of his own, especially defensively and in the grappling. If McKinney plays it smart and wrestles, he can take over. It’s risky, but I think he edges it.

Pick: Terrance McKinney

Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

This should be close. Araujo brings pressure and cardio, while Cortez has the more rounded skillset. I think Cortez times a few clean takedowns and controls enough minutes. She has to avoid falling behind early, but she’s got the tools to take over late.

Pick: Tracy Cortez

Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

Delgado may be more polished, but Amil’s nonstop pressure is hell to deal with. He breaks guys with pace and toughness. Unless Delgado can stay perfect for 15 minutes, I see Amil dragging him into a brawl and wearing him down.

Pick: Hyder Amil

Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a killer in the first couple rounds and should have the physical edge here. Hermansson is durable and crafty, but Robocop’s power and top pressure might be too much. I like Rodrigues to get ahead early and survive late if needed.

Pick: Gregory Rodrigues

Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

Felipe Lima is a legit prospect. He’s well-rounded and has already beaten solid UFC competition. Talbott is dangerous on the feet, but Lima has a clear path to the mat where he holds a huge edge. If things get dicey standing, expect him to go there.

Pick: Felipe Lima

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

I think Dariush is being overlooked in this matchup. His layoff is a factor that worries me but outside of that, I think he’s the better grappler in a matchup where both fighters will look to get the fight down to the mat. Moicano has some real submission skills but against a wrestler of Dariush’s caliber, he won’t be able to dictate when and how this fight goes to the ground. Dariush on the other side can control Moicano, stay safe from submissions and grind out a decision here. I think that’s exactly what he does.

Pick: Beneil Dariush

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

Royval is tricky and can mix it up everywhere, but Van has serious volume and is on a hot streak. If he can get inside and find his rhythm, he can win minutes. It’ll be dicey early, but I think Van finds his timing and outstrikes Royval.

Pick: Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

Pantoja is too well-rounded for Kara-France. His ground game is elite, and he’s got cardio and chin to push through trouble. I see Pantoja finding a scramble, taking the back, and locking up a sub.

Pick: Alexandre Pantoja

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

This hurts. Oliveira is a legend, but Topuria has the perfect tools to expose his flaws. Charles gets hit clean and often, and Ilia’s power and accuracy should land. Unless Charles can gas him out with early grappling, Ilia probably finds the chin.

Pick: Ilia Topuria

Final Thoughts:

This is a card with some real money making potential in my opinion. Official plays and premium bets at betkopicks.com.