Noche UFC: Full Card Breakdown & Picks

Overview

Mexican independence day card and once again, we’re going through every matchup from top to bottom. Let’s get into it. 👇

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko

Rodrigo is a high-IQ fighter with sneaky durability and a relentless pace that masks his cardio. Despite appearing tired at times, he keeps coming forward and excels in the clinch with strong offensive wrestling and fluid scrambles. Donchenko is a dangerous striker early, but as the fight wears on, Rodrigo’s pressure and grappling should take over. Expect him to grind out a decision in a gritty, grapple-heavy performance.

Pick: Rodrigo Sezinando

Alice Pereira vs Montserrat Rendon

Pereira is a skilled striker who should have the advantage on the feet, especially against Rendon, who’s looked limited in past outings. The concern is Pereira’s age and level of competition, she’s only 19 and hasn’t faced anyone close to UFC caliber. Rendon may look to test her with grappling and strength, but her control isn't dominant. Pereira should do more damage over the course of the fight. A cautious lean towards the prospect, but this is a pass from a betting perspective.

Pick: Alice Pereira

Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria

Costa brings a fast-paced, technical striking game and strong takedown defense into this matchup. Coria is a grapple-first fighter with a path to victory if he can impose his wrestling. But Costa’s compact frame and defensive awareness should make that difficult. Expect Costa to keep it standing, outstrike Coria, and potentially find the finish.

Pick: Alessandro Costa

Zach Reese vs Sedriques Dumas

This is a volatile matchup between two flawed fighters. Dumas has tools but often looks checked out, while Reese is just extremely hard to trust. Neither inspires a lot of confidence, but Reese has to be the pick as he’s shown to have a bit more durability and poise. Still, this is a stay-away fight from a betting perspective, no value on either side.

Pick: Zach Reese

Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule

Gurule is the sharper striker and brings a much higher volume game. Aguilar’s UFC experience and opportunistic submission game, particularly his guillotine, are dangerous if Gurule shoots. But if Gurule can keep it upright and stay smart defensively, he should win the striking exchanges and take the fight on the cards.

Pick: Luis Gurule

Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos

Suarez has elite wrestling and is one of the most dominant grapplers in the division. Lemos is tough and experienced, but Suarez’s ability to control and dictate where the fight takes place should be too much. Expect a lot of top control and positional dominance en route to a clear decision win.

Pick: Tatiana Suarez

Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva

Puelles is a talented grappler and he's shown in his last fight to have some improved offensive wrestling. Both of these guys have are coming off of long layoffs but Silva's recent performances have just felt lackluster. Neither of these guys are trustworthy but I think Puelles will force Silva to grapple in this matchup. Expect a close decision with short striking exchanges but lots of scrambles.

Pick: Claudio Puelles

Jose Medina vs Dusko Todorovic

Medina is tough, but he’s simply not UFC caliber. He gets by on heart, not skill. Dusko, despite durability concerns, has a much higher technical ceiling and more ways to win. He should cruise here unless he eats something big early.

Pick: Dusko Todorovic

Santiago Luna vs Quang Le

This is an unproven prospect versus a borderline UFC caliber opponent. Luna brings chaos and thrives in brawls, which Le has shown he doesn’t handle well. Luna's ground game has looked solid regionally, and unless Le can consistently wrestle, Luna’s pressure and violence should overwhelm him.

Pick: Santiago Luna

Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira

Ferreira may be aging, but Hernandez’s recent run doesn’t inspire much confidence. Ferreira’s boxing and pace could drag this fight into a war, and if it turns into a firefight, Diego is the more tested brawler. Expecting violence and chaos, Ferreira finds the chin first.

Pick: Diego Ferreira

Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus

This is a sneaky spot for Dustin. He starts fast and has underrated wrestling and power. Kelvin isn’t a finishing threat and may struggle to keep up with Dustin early. If Stoltzfus can survive and manage his gas tank, he’s live for a decision win.

Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus

Jared Gordon vs Rafa Garcia

Gordon has the volume, pace, and cardio to take this one. Garcia will have the crowd behind him, but Gordon is likely to stuff takedowns and win most striking exchanges. It might be close, but the more complete game belongs to Gordon.

Pick: Jared Gordon

Rob Font vs David Martinez

Martinez is exciting and powerful, but Font has never been finished and brings a 4-inch reach advantage and crisp boxing. Font’s jab and experience should let him control the range and pace. Expect a veteran performance on the cards.

Pick: Rob Font

Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva

This should be fireworks. Lopes is dangerous but tends to rely on his chin too much. Silva is explosive and technical, and that kind of sharp striking could be a big problem over five rounds. Lopes has a grappling advantage, but getting it there won’t be easy. Silva by attrition in a high-paced war.

Pick: Jean Silva

Final Thoughts

This is a card packed with high-variance matchups, live dogs, and breakout prospect opportunities. From veteran comebacks to gritty underdog spots, we’re expecting some chaos and a few statement performances. Tail selectively and manage your exposure, this one’s going to get wild.